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Let's brainstorm several possible scenarios for Ukraine/Russia developments during the next 6-9 months.
The May 25th elections in Ukraine
1. do happen
2. don't happen
if (1)
1.1. the US and EU recognize the new president, even if the East boycotts the elections;
1.2. Russia doesn't recognize the results and tries to destabilize Ukraine either through
1.2.1 direct annexation of the East, or
1.2.2. formation of a puppet East Ukraine Republic;
1.3. Russia starts a new gas war.
1.4. Russia recognizes the results.
if (2)
2.1. the US and EU help Ukraine set up a new elections date, helping the provisional government consolidate its power.
2.1.1. A new provisional government is formed.
2.1.2. A pro-Western peacekeeping force enters Ukraine or at least some of its parts to ensure the elections.
2.2. Russia choses a confrontation ( East/West Germany scenario)
2.2.1. A Russian peacekeeping force enters Ukraine to ensure the elections in the East.
2.3. Russia chooses cooperation ( Yugoslavia?)
2.3.1. An UN peacekeeping force enters Ukraine to ensure the elections across Ukraine.
Possible outcomes and aux. factors:
Economics
1. No additional sanctions against Russia;
2. Additional sanctions against Russia;
3. Gas war;
4. Cooperation on gas issues;
5. Russia reaches an agreement w/China;
6. Russia doesn't reach an agreement w/China;
7. Russian economy improves;
8. Russian economy dives;
9. Ukraine economy improves;
10. Ukraine economy dives;
== Key indicators to watch
The South Stream approval/rejection
The state of economy in Russia in April, May, etc.
Energy substitution options for Europe ( Nabucco)
Politics
1. Ukrainian forces commit an atrocity
2. Pro-Russian forces commit an atrocity
3. Russia commits a verifiable atrocity in Ukraine
4. China supports Russia
5. China doesn't support Russia
6. Crimea integration is a success
7. Crimea integration is a disaster
8. Russia keeps Crimea
9. Russia withdraws from Crimea
10. Putin is dismissed in an internal pro-Westrn coup
Anything else?
On the first glance, the most attractive scenario is (1) with no new sanctions against Russia and no gas war; with the US, EU, Russia, and Ukraine reaching an agreement on gas prices/volumes.
Is this acceptable to Putin? If Russian economy dives he would need a destabilized Ukraine to maintain internal political consensus, while not subjecting Russia to new sanctions. If Russian economy improves or crashes he might play hardball with a full blown gas war, with or without a military intervention.
I tend to think that Russia will play for time, choosing 1.2.2, signing at least a symbolic agreement with China, avoiding new sanctions and an all-out gas war. Putin is a brilliant tactician but poor strategist. He'll look for an excuse to be provoked or dissed. Ultimately, it all depends on the ability of the new Ukrainian government to produce an economic recovery, while facing Russian pressure.
With all the unknowns, Qatar and China stand to be likely winners in the end. Kazakhstan also stands to gain economically, but it's vulnerable politically due to its large Russian-speaking population.
The May 25th elections in Ukraine
1. do happen
2. don't happen
if (1)
1.1. the US and EU recognize the new president, even if the East boycotts the elections;
1.2. Russia doesn't recognize the results and tries to destabilize Ukraine either through
1.2.1 direct annexation of the East, or
1.2.2. formation of a puppet East Ukraine Republic;
1.3. Russia starts a new gas war.
1.4. Russia recognizes the results.
if (2)
2.1. the US and EU help Ukraine set up a new elections date, helping the provisional government consolidate its power.
2.1.1. A new provisional government is formed.
2.1.2. A pro-Western peacekeeping force enters Ukraine or at least some of its parts to ensure the elections.
2.2. Russia choses a confrontation ( East/West Germany scenario)
2.2.1. A Russian peacekeeping force enters Ukraine to ensure the elections in the East.
2.3. Russia chooses cooperation ( Yugoslavia?)
2.3.1. An UN peacekeeping force enters Ukraine to ensure the elections across Ukraine.
Possible outcomes and aux. factors:
Economics
1. No additional sanctions against Russia;
2. Additional sanctions against Russia;
3. Gas war;
4. Cooperation on gas issues;
5. Russia reaches an agreement w/China;
6. Russia doesn't reach an agreement w/China;
7. Russian economy improves;
8. Russian economy dives;
9. Ukraine economy improves;
10. Ukraine economy dives;
== Key indicators to watch
The South Stream approval/rejection
The state of economy in Russia in April, May, etc.
Energy substitution options for Europe ( Nabucco)
Politics
1. Ukrainian forces commit an atrocity
2. Pro-Russian forces commit an atrocity
3. Russia commits a verifiable atrocity in Ukraine
4. China supports Russia
5. China doesn't support Russia
6. Crimea integration is a success
7. Crimea integration is a disaster
8. Russia keeps Crimea
9. Russia withdraws from Crimea
10. Putin is dismissed in an internal pro-Westrn coup
Anything else?
On the first glance, the most attractive scenario is (1) with no new sanctions against Russia and no gas war; with the US, EU, Russia, and Ukraine reaching an agreement on gas prices/volumes.
Is this acceptable to Putin? If Russian economy dives he would need a destabilized Ukraine to maintain internal political consensus, while not subjecting Russia to new sanctions. If Russian economy improves or crashes he might play hardball with a full blown gas war, with or without a military intervention.
I tend to think that Russia will play for time, choosing 1.2.2, signing at least a symbolic agreement with China, avoiding new sanctions and an all-out gas war. Putin is a brilliant tactician but poor strategist. He'll look for an excuse to be provoked or dissed. Ultimately, it all depends on the ability of the new Ukrainian government to produce an economic recovery, while facing Russian pressure.
With all the unknowns, Qatar and China stand to be likely winners in the end. Kazakhstan also stands to gain economically, but it's vulnerable politically due to its large Russian-speaking population.