ГМО и системный риск

[timelets]

Пару лет назад Нассим Талеб с соавторами опубликовали статью с моделью катастрофического риска (The Precautionary Principle), и его применению к случаю ГМО.
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/pp2
Они пишут:

Ecologically, in addition to intentional cultivation, GMOs have the propensity to spread uncontrollably, and thus their risks cannot be localized. The cross-breeding of wild-type plants with genetically modified ones prevents their disentangling, leading to irreversible system-wide effects with unknown downsides. The ecological implications
of releasing modified organisms into the wild are not tested empirically before release.
...
One argument in favor of GMOs is that they are no more "unnatural" than the selective farming our ancestors have been doing for generations. In fact, the ideas developed in this paper show that this is not the case. Selective breeding over human history is a process in which change still happens in a bottom-up way, and can be expected to result in a thin-tailed distribution. If there is a mistake, some harmful variation, it will not spread throughout the whole system but end up dying out due to local experience over time.

В условиях, когда в мире одна из самых главных проблем - ожирение, я не совсем понимаю, зачем нужно увеличивать системные риски ради увеличения производства еды. Особенно если учесть новые возможности технологий CRISPR and Gene Drive.

"A Conversation with Bertrand Russell (1952)" (Watch on YouTube)