timelets: (Default)
timelets ([personal profile] timelets) wrote2015-01-25 09:35 am

про дефляцию

[thinking aloud] The high-tech industry has always lived in deflationary times. That is, over the last 50+ years, computing, storage, and communications kept getting exponentially better. Under the circumstances, a rational consumer would be better off if she delayed her technology purchases until it became absolutely necessary. [here we can talk about Irving Fisher's impatience theory].

What if the current deflationary situation in the West is directly linked to consumer expectations, created through years of high-tech experience, that tomorrow's going to be better than today? Also, would a new nuclear threat from Russia, besides increasing military spendings, create expectations (probability distribution) that we better consume today because there might be no tomorrow?