timelets

Trump tax on the US and the rest of the world

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 23:42:15 GMT

The Fed lowered interest rates three times since August last year, for the total of 0.75%. Nevertheless, because of Trump's stupid war and his overall incompetence the 10Y rate is back up where it was back then. The markets don't believe that the moron can open the strait and now, in addition to TACO, traders have a new term for that — "NACHO", No Chance Hormuz Opens.

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Best report of the WHCD shooting

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 06:39:16 GMT

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Tue, 28 Apr 2026 03:24:32 GMT

...by “freedom” Hegel now means nothing transcendent but, in a more transcendental vein, the power that reason demonstrates over nature by transforming what would otherwise be just something physical into an object, by humanizing it through labor, and ultimately by making it re-exist, as Hegel says in the 1805/06 System, as the object of art, religion, and science. ”

-- Di Giovanni in “Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel: The Science of Logic.”

Imagine, we outsource this labor to learning/reasoning/inferring machines. What happens to the process of humanization?

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Театр одного зрителя

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 03:35:22 GMT

Пару дней назад Яков сделал пост о том, как RFJ jr, один из трамповских жополизов (по совместительству наш министр здравоохранения), объясняет, что Трамп был по-своему прав, когда заявлял о снижении цены лекарств на 600%, если она, по его словам, падала с $600 до $100.
https://yakov-a-jerkov.dreamwidth.org/2386697.html

"Логика" объяснения в том, что снижение в 6 раз можно каким-то образом представить как снижение на 600%. Объяснение потребовалось потому, что на слушаниях в Конгрессе сенаторы публично высмеяли трамповские заявления о 600%, и RFK jr., как и положено лояльному жополизу, пришлось Трампа защищать.

Я прочитал пост Якова и удивился, потому что накануне, в день слушаний в Конгрессе, в твиттере была ссылка на оригинальное видео, где RFK jr защищал 600% Трампа, но там были другие числа. Тогда он говорил про снижение с $600 до $10 и тоже объяснял, что у Трампа своя логика. https://x.com/krassenstein/status/2046991286649884740

Вопрос в том, почему вдруг понадобились отдельное публичное выступление RFK jr, теперь уже в присутствии самого Трампа, но с новыми числами. Оба объяснения 600% абсурдны с точки зрения не только математики, но и Американского Свода Коммерческих Правил (The Uniform Commercial Code). Если бы компания рекламировала в интернете или газете снижение цены на товар на 600%, ей бы пришлось сделать соответствующую скидку по требованию покупателя, т.е. доплатить за покупку.

Тем не менее, в администрации Трампа посчитали необходимым публично защитить дурака-начальника с версией расчетов, которые бы выглядели более правдоподобно, чем в выступлении RFK jr. в Конгрессе. Они поменяли числа и организовали новое выступление для прессы, теперь уже в присутствии самого Трампа, чтобы RFK jr. унизился и вылизал боссу задницу у всех на виду еще раз. Интересно, сколько людей в правительстве, кроме самого Президента и министра здравоохранения, занимались всей этой херней. (Но даже для них изначальнoe $600 -> $10 выглядело еще более необъяснимо, чем $600 -> $100, поэтому пришлось менять одну липу на другую.)

В свое время, когда после перестройки были опубликованы материалы ЦК КПСС и КГБ, люди с удивлением обнаружили, какой херней занимались советские руководители на самом высшем уровне. Похоже, в трамповской администрации царит тот же маразм, что и в брежневской.

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Sun, 26 Apr 2026 17:47:58 GMT

Now, Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, is taking the next step, one that would have been unthinkable even as recently as 2024. By word and deed, he’s showing Europe and the world how the post-American free world can preserve its liberty and independence.
...
No nation can match American might, but for the first time in my adult life, the moral and strategic heart of the defense of liberal democracy doesn’t beat in Washington. It doesn’t beat in London or Paris or Berlin or Ottawa, either. It’s in Kyiv, where a courageous leader and a courageous people have picked up the torch America has dropped.

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Sun, 26 Apr 2026 04:23:47 GMT

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Собачье Сердце

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 19:47:20 GMT

-- Stith Thomson, The Folktale.

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TIL: The Dragon Slayer

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 20:02:17 GMT

Пьеса Шварца "Убить Дракона" написана по мотивам одной из самых распространенных в мире сказок "The Dragon Slayer":

He discovers that a seven-headed dragon who lives on a mountain in the neighborhood demands: periodically a maiden asa sacrifice, else he will lay waste the entire country. The sacrifice has been agreed upon and the lot has fallen to the princess. The king promises that whoever saves her shall have her hand and half his kingdom.

-- Stith Thomson. The Folktale, 1978. UC Press.

This probably goes back to the Minotaur myth.

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Thu, 16 Apr 2026 02:42:16 GMT

Россия переходит из состояния "людоеды" в состояние "трупоеды".

В Смоленской области на территории мемориального комплекса «Катынь» открылась выставка «Десять веков польской русофобии». Об этом сообщили организаторы выставки — Российское военно-историческое общество (РВИО), которое возглавляет помощник президента РФ Владимир Мединский.

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How America recovers

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 21:13:29 GMT

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Sat, 11 Apr 2026 05:07:44 GMT

Peggy Noonan:

They [two Trump's posts on Iran: 1. open the f-ing strait; 2. civilization will die tonight] constituted hitting a new bottom, a new and infernal, face-lit-by-flames bottom, in world communications. The posts weren’t showbiz, they were sinister. You destabilize the world when, as the American president, you say such things. You make all the babies in this delicately poised, always knock-down-able world less safe. You rob your own nation of a claim to moral seriousness in the military action in which it’s engaged: You are saying we’re not trying to protect life but plan to attack, and in the attacking kill noncombatants who are members of the targeted civilization. The moral high ground is relinquished. You lower the bar for all potential response. You encourage violent action by trumpeting your readiness for it.

It bolsters the position of your enemies—their animus is justified, their commitment deepened. It allows them to pretend they’re fighting for the continuation of their people and not only the continuation of their regime.

Donald Trump plays the part of the madman every day. His head fake would be sanity. If his advisers thought this was a good negotiating tactic—“Give ’em a little madman theory, Mr. President”—they really are hicks.

Mr. Trump’s trust in his gut seems to have grown overwhelming—not in his reasoning power, not his analysis of intelligence data, but gut.

A lot of gut instinct is pattern recognition—I’ve lived long, experienced much, and know how this movie ends. But that means gut is weighted toward past experience.

Sometimes gut is mere emotion dressed up as instinct. Sometimes it’s wishful thinking that feels like conviction. Sometimes it conveniently pre-empts hard reasoning.

You can trust your gut straight into catastrophe.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/in-gut-we-trust-dde164b6

_Hick_ is the right term for describing Trump's supporters of the Art-of-the-deal flavor.

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Thu, 09 Apr 2026 04:51:08 GMT

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And the winners are...

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 19:45:21 GMT

What started as a tongue-in-cheek observation that “Trump always chickens out” has become a consistently profitable pattern. It works especially well when there’s a specific deadline like Tuesday night’s Strait of Hormuz ultimatum since there’s less danger of being right but getting the timing wrong.

Over the 300-plus trading sessions since Trump took the oath of office last year, nine of the S&P 500’s 10 biggest gains have had to do with relief over tariffs or Iran. Owning stocks on just those days would have earned an investor 52% on their money compared with 12% for buying and holding an index fund throughout. Wednesday’s cease-fire rally might crack the top six.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/iran-bounce-these-tacos-are-getting-stale-1f69dd3a

Also of interest:

A Trump insider opened a $51,000,000 oil short position — hours before Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran. This guy is now 16 for 16. $170 million in profit. A perfect streak.

"We placed the bet." "The ceasefire dropped." "We cashed out." Sixteen times in a row.
https://x.com/JamesTate121/status/2041908860576002256

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Соскочит

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 22:06:59 GMT

President Donald Trump said he was in “heated negotiations” involving the war with Iran after mediator Pakistan asked for a two-week extension of his Tuesday deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/us-strikes-kharg-island-as-trump-says-iran-could-die-tonight

Everyone, except MAGA idiots, knows that the heated negotiations are happening in his own head, as he's desperately trying to get out of this war. The markets are betting that he'll grab the lifeline thrown to him by Pakistan. What a moron.

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50/50

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 02:56:36 GMT

Trump is considering whether to join Putin and Netanyahu in the race to become the next ~~Nobel Peace Prize winner~~ Hitler. The WSJ makes a halfhearted argument against it.

The U.S. has a strong interest in causing chaos for Iran’s military, and targeting can allow it to do so without bombing every power plant in the country.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-donald-trump-ultimatum-strait-of-hormuz-dan-caine-john-ratcliffe-4f9d3372

"Well, isn't that special."

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Mon, 06 Apr 2026 05:04:56 GMT

Ah, the good old days when generals were portrayed as crazy warmongers and the president with his staff were presented as intelligent and acting responsibly. Now, it's the other way around and sheer madness is called the art of the deal.

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Fri, 03 Apr 2026 17:38:28 GMT

In internal deliberations before the war’s launch, Hegseth had pointed to Iran's muted reaction to Trump’s past attacks as evidence that calibrated force could impose costs on Tehran without triggering a broader war. Hegseth “was caught off guard.

The Administration also appeared to be taken by surprise when Iran reached for a source of leverage: control over the Strait of Hormuz, which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through each day. In response to U.S. strikes, Tehran implemented a de facto blockade, declaring the channel effectively closed and restricting passage to non-hostile vessels. The resulting economic shock had domestic reverberations that went beyond the expectations of Trump’s inner circle.

https://time.com/article/2026/04/02/trump-iran-off-ramp/

Now, Hegseth is firing generals because they know he is the clueless amateur who got the country into a quagmire.

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Thu, 02 Apr 2026 01:47:41 GMT

Better late than never, I guess.

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Wed, 01 Apr 2026 21:34:58 GMT

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Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:23:38 GMT

If Trump died the markets would go even higher.

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Tue, 31 Mar 2026 00:21:15 GMT

Now, before each class I give Claude a particular narrative I'd like to cover and ask it to generate jokes within the overall context of the lecture/course. Every time, it comes up with at least one or two good ones, which I wouldn't be able to make myself. That didn't work last year.

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Mon, 30 Mar 2026 04:28:41 GMT

I think these old farts will try to capture Iranian islands next weekend because "it's easy", just like the healthcare reform or tariffs.

Exhibit 1:

Trump said: “To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people.”

Asked about the state of Iranian defence on Kharg Island he said: “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.”

https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Exhibit 2:

Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former commander of U.S. Central Command (Centcom), said Sunday... some of those islands you could seize and hold.
“First of all, it would be profoundly humiliating for Iran and would give us great weight in negotiations. The second, the example of Kharg Island, which everyone talks about, if you seize Kharg Island, you really can shut down the Iranian oil economy completely. And the beauty of seizing it is, you’re not destroying it,” he said.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5806811-mckenzie-us-iran-raids/

As if drones don't exist yet. Humiliating my foot! What if Iran decides to destroy oil and desalination facilities in other Gulf countries in response? We just saw how Ukraine hit Russia's oil shipping infrastructure on the Baltic sea. We just saw how Iran destroyed multiple US planes on a military base in SA. The fucking moron seem to think every ground operation is a just another Venezuela excursion.

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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 21:59:07 GMT

“Ultimately, the task of parenting hasn’t changed, despite the demoralization of AI. It’s still about: How can we raise adaptable, grounded humans, who can respond to disruption—and, even more important, who believe they can respond to disruption,” says Dr. Elkins.

Resiliency is the key to functioning in a world moving so quickly under their feet.

Dr. Elkins assures me this will be easier than I think. “If you see your kid is doing a great job tolerating frustration, say, the videogame console breaks and instead of throwing it against the wall they fix it, that’s an opportunity to be like, ‘Hey, you dealt with that really well,’” she says. “Or when you notice flexibility—they were supposed to go to a friend’s house and someone got sick, but they pivoted nicely. You can say, ‘I saw you rebounded really well.’”

She suggests encouraging your kids to take initiative rather than waiting for instructions, to take healthy risks and do things more independently. “These are core skills that research tells us over and over are related to long-term adaptability,” says Dr. Elkins.

https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/relationships/ai-parenting-anxiety-c054a54b

The school of hard knocks is back in favor. In education, it's a lot less about a specific skill than general adaptability. Everyone is an explorer now and from that perspective building a team of explorers is the key skill. Also, once you find something valuable, you should switch into the _exploit_ mode as fast as you can (per Alison Gopnik) and rebuild your team.

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Somewhere over the rainbow – 1939

Sun, 29 Mar 2026 19:27:02 GMT

Watching Oscars Best Song winners is probably one of the easiest ways to track the evolution of the movie industry.

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Sat, 28 Mar 2026 23:27:12 GMT

For many years, I meditated using the Serenity Prayer without really thinking through what _serenity_ actually was. I kind of knew what the dictionary meaning of the word was. Also, I could relate to typical dictionary examples explaining it: sitting on a secluded beach and watching the waves; staring into a moonless night sky, with the Milky Way thinly stretched and partially torn by darkness. But only after my mom passed away I discovered in my childhood memories what serenity could feel like in my own life.

During the first few months after her death, memories of the past began flooding in. Suddenly, I remembered lots of different slabs or layers of time, both good and bad. Because of their association with a recent death, they were not enjoyable, but satisfying nevertheless. They were bringing the sense of closure to the end of life of someone who I realized I loved dearly. Of course, in a medical sense her death was not unexpected . We all knew that she's getting really old and the death would bring relief to her age-related suffering. But that expectation didn't stimulate memories, especially the good ones. Everything that surrounded the dying person was wrapped in care and mindless routine partially designed to squeeze out the dread of the coming death, partially to prevent yourself from mentioning it to her by accident — when you think about someone dying every day unwelcome words eventually roll off your tongue.

Anyways, a while after the funeral, I remembered some early summer days, right after the start of school vacations when thousands of daisies seemed to rush into bloom behind our house. As a kid, I was mostly indifferent to flowers. Why would a boy growing up on a military base care about flowers? Tanks, guns, ammo for sure. But flowers? Although, daisies were a tiny bit different because you could use them for guessing: she loves me, she loves me not (at the time I had a secret crush on a girl from the 5Б class — Lilly C.). But my mom had a different and very practical use for daisies. She believed in their medicinal properties and would send me to collect the flowers, so that she could dry them out in the sun and store for the winter.

In the morning, I would land in the middle of a daisy patch, then start ripping off flower heads, sticking them into a bag; slowly one by one. Sometimes I'd play a guessing game, sometimes watch a bumblebee hovering next to me, sometimes pick up an ant and race it through my fingers. But eventually, I'd forget everything and just sit quietly among the daisies, enjoying the gentle sun, the soft early summer breeze, thinking of nothing, feeling ... At the time, I didn't realize that this very feeling had a special name – serenity.

Lord, grant me the Serenity
To accept things I cannot change,
The Courage to change things I can,
And the Wisdom to know the difference.

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