Jun. 15th, 2017

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What's the probability that Covfefe will refuse to testify under oath for the Mueller investigation?

I'd say that it's greater than 50% because:
1) both he and his lawyer are aware of his tendency to lie habitually, even when it's totally unnecessary;
2) he's already declaring the investigation being unfair ("the greatest political WITCH HUNT in American history.");
3) there's no upside in testifying because an honest testimony won't bring him any additional votes;
4) his closest allies are warning him about the dangers of impeachment;
5) there's an advantage in dragging out the testimony until after the House elections in 2018.

A rational actor would not testify unless compelled by law or out of fear that his co-defendants would testify against him (The Prisoner's Dilemma). I'd bet 3 to 2 that Covfefe will either not testify at all or refuse to answer key (need to specify) questions until at least the end of 2018. The rational actor would argue that the focus of the investigation should be on the alleged Russian hacking, not obstruction of justice; therefore there's no need to testify.

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