Feb. 7th, 2017

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Вернемся к моему прогнозу от 6-о сентября. Тогда я оценил вероятность успешного решения проблемы в 65%.
Сейчас эту вероятность надо изменить к 90%, потому что

а) власти оказались не заинтересованы в раздувании конфликта, а сентябре я оценивал эту вероятность в 1/3.
б) внутреннее расследование замяли. Моя ошибка была в том, что я не предполагал такой сценарий развития и оценивал только способности руководства провести честное расследование. Видимо, в таких случаях надо отдельно оценивать способность замять, а не способность разобраться и привести к разрешению конфликта.

Как и предполагалось, частных исков к школе не подавали.
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And the last thing for this morning: in the second part of the O'Reilly interview Trump says (3:50), "I'm an honest person, blah-blah-blah."

I think this is hilarious.

upd: the "I'm an honest person" phrase is a cliche tactic to negotiate the other party down. People use it as a trick to create an illusion of objectivity and separate themselves psychologically from negative statements directed at the opponent. The rule is, expect a bunch of lies when you hear somebody say, "I'm an honest person."
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An animal more like the gods than these,
more intellectually capable
and able to control the other beasts,
had not as yet appeared: now man was born,
either because the framer of all things,
the fabricator of this better world,
created man out of his own divine
substance—or else because Prometheus
took up a clod (so lately broken off
from lofty aether that it still contained
some elements in common with its kin),
and mixing it with water, molded it
into the shape of gods, who govern all.
And even though all other animals
lean forward and look down toward the ground,
he gave to man a face that is uplifted,
and ordered him to stand erect and look
directly up into the vaulted heavens
and turn his countenance to meet the stars;

Ovid. “Metamorphoses.”

Just as a side thought, modern animal factories completely destroy an internal social structure of the herd/flock that survived the process of domestication.


Feb. 7th, 2017 12:40 pm
timelets: (Default)
Оказывается, выражение "Серебряный Век" идет от Овидия.

upd: a вот и железный век,

Last was the age of iron: suddenly,
all forms of evil burst upon this time
of baser mettle; modesty, fidelity,
and truth departed; in their absence, came
fraud, guile, deceit, the use of violence,
and shameful lusting after acquisitions.
timelets: (Default)
Метаморфозы Овидия читается, как Евгений Онегин Пушкина. Очень похожая легкость стихов и естественность фантазии.


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