Jan. 4th, 2017

timelets: (Default)
One of the most significant consequences of the introduction of the clock-and, with it, the quantitative view of duration-to the West has been the evolution of an abstract conception of time there.
The abstract conception of time is at the basis of the modern notion of duration, which is essentially what we measure when we use the stopwatch, the parking meter, or the egg timer.

--- Evitar Zerubavel. Hidden Rhythms, 1985.

The invention of the mechanical clock made the duration aspect of time monoidable. As a result we can map it to any other measurable entity, e.g. money, effort, skill, etc.


Jan. 4th, 2017 10:32 pm
timelets: (Default)
What would be the probability of Trump being impeached during his first or second term?

We need three components:
1. A major blunder or public offense.
2. A major exposure of the blunder or the offense, so that the Congress can't ignore it.
3. The Congress (House) has the votes to appoint a special prosecutor and impeach. Maybe I should split this item it into two separate ones.

#2 is the easiest because Trump has antagonized the press, the intelligence agencies, and will have antagonized government workers. Therefore, we can set the probability at 100%.

#1 is a bit harder because, in general, it's difficult for a US president to commit an impeachable offense. I'd put it at 10% for now.

#3 is even harder because the House will be controlled by the Republicans during Trump's first term, or at least until 2018. Therefore, the question becomes: a) what's the probability of the Democrats taking over the House in 2018? b) what's the probability of Trump being re-elected in 2020? c) what's the probability of the Democrats taking over the House in 2020?

So far, Trump's impeachment looks highly unlikely.


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